Download Book of Extremes: Why the 21st Century Isn’t Like the 20th by Ted G. Lewis PDF

By Ted G. Lewis

What makes the twenty first century various from the 20 th century? This century is the century of extremes -- political, monetary, social, and worldwide black-swan occasions occurring with expanding frequency and severity. publication of Extremes is a journey of the present fact as visible in the course of the lens of complexity conception – the single conception able to explaining why the Arab Spring occurred and why it's going to ensue back; why social networks within the digital global behave like flashmobs within the actual international; why monetary bubbles blow up in our faces and should develop and burst back; why the wealthy get richer and should proceed to get richer despite governmental rules; why the way forward for monetary wealth and nationwide strength lies in comparative virtue and international alternate; why normal failures will proceed to get higher and ensue extra usually; and why the net – invented by way of the USA -- is headed for a world monopoly managed through a non-US company. it's also in regards to the severe ideas and heroic innovators but to be stumbled on and famous over the subsequent a hundred years.Complexity concept combines the predictable with the unpredictable. It assumes a nonlinear global of long-tailed distributions rather than the classical linear global of ordinary distributions. within the complicated twenty first century, virtually not anything is linear or general. in its place, the area is very attached, conditional, nonlinear, fractal, and punctuated. existence within the twenty first century is a long-tailed random stroll – Levy walks -- via severe occasions of extraordinary effect. it truly is an exhilarating time to be alive.

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Lasn and White were hubs in the Adbuster network, because they were ‘‘connected’’ to 70,000 subscribers. Their influence far outweighed all other actors. What impact does a hub actor have on the rest? Assuming no conviction and the number of neighbors of the pinned RED actor is twice that of the pinned BLUE actor, the size distribution of mobs is still longtailed as before. But the tail of RED is much longer than BLUE. In fact, the size of the largest BLUE mob rarely exceeds 10 % of the population.

Size obeys a long-tailed exceedence probability distribution Fig. 2 Flashmobs are separated in space by distances that obey a long-tailed exceedence probability distribution Fig. 3 Flashmobs also obey a long-tailed exceedence probability distribution in time: flashmobs are mostly clustered together in time, but a few are separated by long periods of quiet uprising, rave, or flashmob incident. Instead, there are many insignificant uprisings, raves, and flashmobs happening all the time, but once in a while really significant flashes happen.

For example, if features suddenly become more influential than before, the likelihood of buying can be quantitatively evaluated by running the BN model again and determining the impact of a feature on sales. The degrees of belief are changed in the BN model and the analysis repeated. Bayes’ Theorem is an exotic and mathematically sophisticated model of reality. It combines evidence-based logic with probability theory in a practical way. As the confidence in the likelihood of pre-cursor events increases because of accumulated evidence, uncertainty in the likelihood of a future event declines, yielding more ‘‘belief’’ in Pr(A | B).

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